Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
36 0x3650…c868 politics 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$6
economics 1% $0
other 1% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.8% -13.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -3.8% -13.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -3.8% -13.0% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 16 -3.4% -12.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage250d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $208 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 87¢ 16¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $208 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -17%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $210 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -16%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -19%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 20 $20 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 17 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31m
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 3h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 4h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 8h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 10h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 11h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 12h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 13h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 13h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 13h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 17h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 17h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 18h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 19h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 20h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 23h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 23h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 29h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 32h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 37h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 38h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 38h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.62 · official $211.62 (match) · 64 history records