Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3656…945c weather 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$10
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 57% +$14
other 24% +$4
sports 19% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.1% -24.1% 60% 60% -22.2%
≤30d 7 -21.7% -29.2% 57% 57% -15.5%
≤90d 7 -21.7% -29.2% 57% 57% -15.5%
all 7 -21.7% -29.2% 57% 57% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 57% -15.5%
10% -36.0% 57% -23.6%
15% -42.2% 43% -30.9%
20% -47.8% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage9d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $12 +$5 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $22 −$2 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.50 · official $18.50 (match) · 14 history records