Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3658…211c crypto 125 markets active 11h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-6%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%67W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$47
other 3% −$10
weather 1% −$1
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -14.2% -22.3% 55% 43% -18.6%
≤30d 124 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 43% -17.6%
≤90d 124 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 43% -17.6%
all 124 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 43% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 43% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 31% -25.4%
15% -34.0% 16% -32.7%
20% -40.5% 11% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses67 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $1 11h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 70¢ $1 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $1.59 (match) · 261 history records