Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
36 0x3659…441a crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$353 (+24%) realized +$355 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% +$42
other 17% +$280
crypto 11% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+65.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤90d 5 +83.4% +65.9% 80% 60% +13.0%
all 5 +83.4% +65.9% 80% 60% +13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +65.9% 60% +13.0%
10% +50.1% 40% +2.2%
15% +35.6% 40% -7.7%
20% +22.3% 40% -16.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$136 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$355
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage95d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 23 $106 +$3 +3%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 10 $137 −$136 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 09 $5 +$19 +351%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $939 +$178 +19%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 29 $195 +$281 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.68 · official $97.68 (match) · 13 history records