Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x3659…6bfc sports 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+3%) realized +$51 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate69%95W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$79
14 days+$86
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$135
weather 41% +$98
sports 11% +$131
other 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.6% -5.3% 72% 35% -1.1%
≤30d 65 +8.6% -1.7% 72% 49% +9.1%
≤90d 65 +8.6% -1.7% 72% 49% +9.1%
all 138 +3.5% -6.4% 69% 43% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 43% -6.1%
10% -15.4% 30% -15.1%
15% -23.5% 18% -23.3%
20% -31.0% 13% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses95 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)138 / 141
History coverage412d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 29? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $80 $98 +$18 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 29? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 29? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? Jun 29 $55 +$50 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $38 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $85 +$19 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $40 −$32 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 27? Jun 28 $30 +$49 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $68 −$7 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $43 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $28 −$27 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? Jun 27 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 26? Jun 27 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? Jun 27 $4 +$6 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26? Jun 27 $40 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 26 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25? Jun 26 $23 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $3 +$2 +81%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 25 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 24? Jun 25 $37 +$7 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24? Jun 25 $51 +$13 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $18 −$13 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23? Jun 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 19 $3 $0 -6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $8 +$1 +13%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 29? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 29? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 29¢ $83 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 33¢ $93 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 35¢ $33 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 95¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 95¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 95¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 95¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? SELL No 95¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $12 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 55¢ $57 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 55¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? SELL Yes 55¢ $32 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 28? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.69 · official $205.72 (match) · 528 history records