Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3659…0451 other 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (243 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$717 (+10%) realized +$686 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +113% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate21%12W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day242.7pace
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$37
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$168
politics 3% +$170
crypto 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
economics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (243 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+92.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +61.3% +46.0% 21% 16% -8.3%
≤30d 56 +113.1% +92.8% 21% 16% -10.4%
≤90d 56 +113.1% +92.8% 21% 16% -10.4%
all 56 +113.1% +92.8% 21% 16% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover242.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +92.8% 16% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here +74.3% 14% -19.0%
15% +57.5% 14% -26.8%
20% +42.1% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +113% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +147% → late +80% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
19.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$775
Realized+$686
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 44
Open positions62
Markets (closed)56 / 116
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day242.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $67 $101 +$34 (+50%)
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 77¢ 71¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-8%)
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 50¢ 47¢ $21 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+50%)
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 51¢ 42¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-18%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-9%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 21 $76 −$6 -8%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $80 −$7 -9%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 21 $1 +$13 +1935%
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 21 $52 −$5 -9%
Will Tori launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 20 $64 −$4 -6%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $188 −$3 -2%
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $123 −$15 -12%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $240 −$9 -4%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $157 −$4 -2%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $5 +$24 +456%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $155 −$5 -3%
Will Tabi launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 19 $57 −$7 -13%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $83 −$9 -11%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 18 $106 −$4 -4%
Will Slingshot launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 18 $18 $0 -2%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 18 $57 −$3 -4%
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 −$5 -10%
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 18 $93 $0 -0%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Slingshot launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 18 $78 −$3 -4%
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 17 $63 −$1 -2%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jun 17 $3 $0 -11%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -15%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -11%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $28 −$3 -10%
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -12%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $34 −$5 -14%
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $65 +$42 +65%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $73 +$15 +21%
Will BP be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $10 +$16 +162%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $86 −$11 -13%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $22 +$2 +10%
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $62 +$23 +37%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 17 $26 +$46 +180%
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 17 $113 −$3 -2%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 16 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 16 $109 −$7 -6%
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $74 −$9 -13%
Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $127 −$8 -7%
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$2 -10%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $79 −$7 -9%
Will Reppo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$22 -71%
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $33 −$12 -36%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $64 −$5 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 9m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14m
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 33m
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 55m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $775.29 · official $775.03 (match) · 3500 history records