Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3662…0e48 sports 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$35 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%42W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$96
14 days+$107
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$175
other 11% −$202
crypto 4% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -22.4% -29.8% 49% 49% -12.4%
≤30d 72 -14.0% -22.2% 51% 51% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -15.3% -23.3% 48% 48% -9.9%
all 88 -15.3% -23.3% 48% 48% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 48% -9.9%
10% -30.7% 40% -18.5%
15% -37.4% 33% -26.4%
20% -43.5% 23% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$29 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses42 / 46
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage42d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 65¢ 42¢ $110 $72 −$38 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $86 +$23 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $354 +$229 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $189 +$112 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $144 −$143 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $43 −$42 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$12 +68%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $212 −$209 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $10 +$6 +64%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $86 −$85 -99%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots Jun 19 $18 +$3 +18%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $81 +$21 +26%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $85 −$84 -99%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $26 −$26 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 +$33 +73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $136 +$42 +31%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 +$5 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $111 +$78 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $55 +$20 +35%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$65 -99%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$1 +48%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $76 +$53 +70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 +$25 +76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $34 +$16 +46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $240 +$211 +88%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $132 −$100 -76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $65 +$20 +31%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $44 +$17 +38%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $39 +$17 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $56 +$35 +62%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $111 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $86 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 67¢ $144 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $354 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $189 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $43 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $212 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 59¢ $17 27h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $86 30h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 60¢ $10 30h
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots BUY Yes 85¢ $18 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $81 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $85 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $36 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $26 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $46 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $136 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $45 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $7 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 73¢ $55 3d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $111 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $65 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $2 4d
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $2 4d
Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $2 4d
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $2 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $33 4d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $76 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $34 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.92 · official $71.92 (match) · 179 history records