Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3665…f1e3 crypto 669 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (159 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%368W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day159.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (159 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 668 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 55% -10.3%
≤30d 668 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 55% -10.3%
≤90d 668 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 55% -10.3%
all 668 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 55% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover159.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 55% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 55% -18.9%
15% -25.8% 55% -26.7%
20% -33.1% 55% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses368 / 300
Open positions1
Markets (closed)668 / 669
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day159.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 51¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 299 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $1.07 (match) · 1068 history records