Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:22:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

36 0x3667…6b32 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized +$19 · open −$27

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown92%max

Avg bet$88per market

Trades / day7.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$663now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-29.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-22.4%	-29.7%	71%	29%	-9.4%
≤30d	7	-22.4%	-29.7%	71%	29%	-9.4%
≤90d	7	-22.4%	-29.7%	71%	29%	-9.4%
all	7	-22.4%	-29.7%	71%	29%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.7%	29%	-9.4%
10%	-36.5%	0%	-18.0%
15%	-42.6%	0%	-25.9%
20%	-48.2%	0%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

60% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.06 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$663

Realized+$19

Unrealized−$27

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$88

Trades / day7.3

Drawdown92%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$230	$203	−$27 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 26	$25	+$5	+20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$25	+$1	+6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$200	$0	+0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$100	+$9	+9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$110	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	13¢	$200	1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	13¢	$30	21h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	BUY Yes	98¢	$10	31h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	83¢	$25	31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	32h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	96¢	$10	34h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	SELL Yes	86¢	$16	34h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	81¢	$15	34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	100¢	$200	34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	92¢	$100	37h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	100¢	$110	37h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $663.38 · official $663.38 (match) · 12 history records