Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x3667…d41a
crypto · 392 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$35 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses266 / 111
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)377 / 392
History coverage102d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 15 History 377 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Up 73¢ 97¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 91¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 92¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 86¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 66¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 60¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 74¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 74¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 90¢ 79¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 75¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? No 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? No 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $7 −$2 -29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 -11%
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump say "N Word" this week? Jun 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +5%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -62%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 +12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 05 $1 $0 +13%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 04 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 02 $1 $0 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +15%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 02 $3 $0 +14%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $5 +$1 +28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $2 +$1 +37%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on May 26? May 28 $2 $0 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $2 $0 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22? May 25 $3 $0 +16%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 22 $3 +$1 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $2 $0 +14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $2 $0 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji May 15 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 14? May 15 $1 $0 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 13? May 14 $1 $0 +14%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 13 $1 $0 +18%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? May 12 $1 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? May 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$19
finance 15% −$6
world 6% −$3
other 3% −$6
tech 2% +$2
weather 2% +$3
politics 2% −$3
sports 1% −$2
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 90¢ $3 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 58¢ $1 11h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 75¢ $1 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 56¢ $1 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 89¢ $4 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? SELL Down 11¢ $1 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 93¢ $1 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 93¢ $2 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? SELL Down 24¢ $0 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 14¢ $1 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 49¢ $1 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 63¢ $1 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 51¢ $3 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 45¢ $1 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 34¢ $1 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 69¢ $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 5d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 92¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump dance on June 6, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.8% -10.2% 67% 25% -15.3%
≤30d 47 +0.0% -9.5% 72% 51% -10.8%
≤90d 219 -14.6% -22.7% 66% 42% -29.7%
all 377 -4.2% -13.3% 71% 46% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 46% -12.8%
10% -21.6% 25% -21.2%
15% -29.2% 14% -28.8%
20% -36.1% 8% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.82 · official $32.80 (match) · 1369 history records