Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x3668…3a1e sports 353 markets active 2d ago coverage 841d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$333 (-1%) realized −$334 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate35%112W / 204L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$45
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$26
sports 30% −$187
other 24% −$90
economics 12% −$7
tech 1% $0
world 1% −$18
culture 1% −$1
crypto 0% −$4
finance 0% −$7
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.7% -28.2% 33% 17% -27.2%
≤30d 140 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 36% -31.9%
≤90d 142 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 36% -28.9%
all 316 -2.4% -11.7% 35% 28% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 28% -10.3%
10% -20.2% 25% -18.9%
15% -27.9% 21% -26.8%
20% -34.9% 16% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

841d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$334
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses112 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions37
Markets (closed)316 / 353
History coverage841d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 60¢ 98¢ $6 $9 +$4 (+62%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 79¢ 96¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No 39¢ 40¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 74¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 47¢ 42¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 37¢ 27¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-27%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 68¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes 16¢ 38¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+134%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No 41¢ 69¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+68%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+49%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 67¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $4 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 24 $5 +$5 +112%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $12 −$1 -5%
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $6 +$1 +10%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$2 +197%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 21 $1 $0 -47%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 21 $9 −$4 -49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 $0 +27%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 21 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +596%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $6 $0 -5%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $1 $0 -29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +18%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +24%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +23%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$2 +226%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +109%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 +$9 +712%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $3 3d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $2 4d
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $1 4d
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 4d
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $2 4d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 74¢ $1 4d
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 31¢ $2 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 42¢ $2 4d
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 28¢ $1 5d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY No 12¢ $1 5d
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 30¢ $2 5d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $4 5d
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 11¢ $2 5d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY No 4¢ $1 5d
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $2 5d
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $2 5d
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 28¢ $1 5d
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 27¢ $1 5d
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 68¢ $2 5d
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.93 · official $106.92 (match) · 839 history records