Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x366a…35a5 crypto 45 markets active 8d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%25W / 20L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$4
crypto 39% +$2
finance 8% −$3
other 4% −$2
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -53.3% -57.7% 33% 33% -59.1%
≤90d 41 +2.0% -7.7% 54% 51% -12.7%
all 45 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 51% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 51% -9.0%
10% -15.9% 44% -17.7%
15% -24.0% 33% -25.6%
20% -31.5% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses25 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage110d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 11 $1 $0 +20%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $1 $0 +42%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 P May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +26%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 05 $3 −$2 -54%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 05 $3 $0 -10%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 04 $2 +$1 +38%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 04 $1 $0 -28%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 03 $1 +$1 +148%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 03 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 02 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $2 −$1 -54%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $2 +$1 +46%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $2 $0 +25%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $1 $0 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 28? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +118%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 28? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? Mar 27 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $1 +$3 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 09 $5 +$2 +43%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $5 +$1 +11%
T20 World Cup: India vs Zimbabwe Feb 27 $10 +$1 +8%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Feb 25 $2 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $2 8d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 82¢ $2 8d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 42d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans BUY Rajasthan Royals 38¢ $1 44d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL Yes 99¢ $1 49d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 P SELL Yes $0 49d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 P BUY Yes $1 49d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY Yes 69¢ $1 49d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings SELL Punjab Kings 100¢ $2 58d
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 58¢ $1 58d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 69d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 76d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up $0 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records