Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x366c…6578 other 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 210d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33,951 (+43%) realized +$34,056 · open −$105
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate82%203W / 46L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 211d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$7,479
sports 12% +$110
politics 10% +$402
tech 4% −$321
culture 1% +$1,294
crypto 0% −$16
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -38.4% -44.3% 47% 12% -14.2%
≤30d 39 -17.3% -25.1% 69% 15% -3.2%
≤90d 59 -12.4% -20.7% 76% 17% -4.3%
all 249 +15.5% +4.5% 82% 19% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 19% -8.9%
10% -5.5% 11% -17.6%
15% -14.6% 6% -25.5%
20% -23.0% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$103 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$662
Realized+$34,056
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses203 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions6
Markets (closed)249 / 246
History coverage211d ⚠
Avg bet$317
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 42¢ 39¢ $418 $392 −$25 (-6%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $231 $136 −$95 (-41%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 51¢ 71¢ $38 $54 +$15 (+40%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government? Yes 80¢ 61¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Romania vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Malta win on 2025-11-14? Jun 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $2.75 million Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Jun 22 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16? Jun 22 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $3.25 million Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during the Brian Kilmeade Show on Nove Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Australian hero donation campaign raise between $3.0 million Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Jun 22 $33 −$56 -168%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $122 +$78 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $386 +$12 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $185 +$3 +2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $9 +$8 +91%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 19 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $561 +$56 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $559 +$29 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $192 +$8 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $576 +$14 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $160 +$39 +25%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $437 +$17 +4%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $986 +$582 +59%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) be included Jun 14 $56 +$3 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $313 +$19 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $1,070 +$34 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $93 +$7 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $292 +$10 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $340 +$6 +2%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026? May 28 $13 +$3 +26%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $155 +$13 +9%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $25 −$6 -23%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $35 +$9 +27%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $381 +$11 +3%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 14 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $257 +$9 +4%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 11 $200 −$111 -56%
Will AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 11 $47 +$2 +4%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 11 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,230 +$28 +2%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 09 $83 +$5 +6%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 07 $79 +$3 +4%
Will Bayern Munich Win the Treble? May 07 $95 +$13 +14%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $398 +$26 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 79¢ $48 41m
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 79¢ $48 41m
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 69¢ $17 47m
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $57 1h
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romania BUY Yes 80¢ $8 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 62¢ $6 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 65¢ $32 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 61¢ $122 9h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 72¢ $66 10h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 45¢ $90 11h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 52¢ $52 11h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 88¢ $22 11h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $65 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $71 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 96¢ $96 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $8 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $71 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $15 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 92¢ $92 34h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 91¢ $91 34h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 96¢ $96 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $661.90 · official $661.90 (match) · 3500 history records