Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x366f…420a politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%19W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$7
other 23% −$9
politics 22% +$3
economics 5% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 8% -9.1%
all 49 -1.9% -11.3% 39% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage317d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $22 +$2 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $123 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $19 −$2 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $129 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $119 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $7 −$1 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $12 +$8 +61%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $109 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Dec 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $8 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 $0 +7%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $15 $0 -1%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 04 $1 $0 -8%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $15 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jarlath Burns win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 07 $13 $0 +0%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $132 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $18 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $105 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $5 35h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 22d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $19 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $48 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $19 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $10 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $33 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $19 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $48 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $48 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $46 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $30 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.82 · official $26.82 (match) · 159 history records