Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3670…18e8 other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$922 (-19%) realized −$700 · open −$222
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%18W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$754now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$245
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$870
politics 33% +$356
sports 16% +$26
crypto 6% −$92
world 4% −$197
economics 3% −$164
culture 1% −$25
tech 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -42.9% -48.3% 11% 11% -52.8%
≤30d 14 -22.1% -29.5% 21% 21% -9.3%
≤90d 14 -22.1% -29.5% 21% 21% -9.3%
all 80 -46.5% -51.6% 22% 20% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 20% -27.5%
10% -56.2% 20% -34.4%
15% -60.5% 19% -40.8%
20% -64.3% 16% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$38 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$754
Realized−$700
Unrealized−$222
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses18 / 62
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions12
Markets (closed)80 / 94
History coverage602d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $224 $202 −$22 (-10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $258 $154 −$104 (-40%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners Over 38¢ 81¢ $59 $126 +$67 (+114%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $145 $118 −$27 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $69 $63 −$6 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $58 $31 −$26 (-46%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 18¢ $47 $22 −$25 (-54%)
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals Yes 12¢ 4¢ $49 $17 −$32 (-65%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $42 $14 −$28 (-68%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-64%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$13 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 23 $116 −$116 -100%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $52 +$215 +414%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $73 −$72 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$199 +197%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $107 +$193 +180%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025? Nov 23 $15 +$14 +96%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Nov 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 12 $112 −$112 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jul 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WeWork declare bankruptcy before July? Jul 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump's sovereign wealth fund acquires Bitcoin before July? Jul 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jul 07 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? May 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? May 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? May 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in April? May 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 28 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April? Apr 28 $23 +$2 +9%
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2025? Apr 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship? Apr 10 $15 −$15 -100%
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips? Apr 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Apr 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election? Apr 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the SPD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Apr 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU win 35-40% of the vote in the German election? Apr 10 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU win over 40% of the vote in the German election? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 10 $85 −$85 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% or more in January? Apr 10 $10 +$3 +32%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Apr 10 $11 +$5 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 38¢ $60 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $48 1h
Deniz Undav: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 28¢ $28 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $40 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 6d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $52 7d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $56 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $141 7d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $43 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $73 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $36 7d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $74 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France BUY 7¢ $46 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $101 7d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 8d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $1 8d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $116 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $101 8d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 35¢ $107 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $70 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $14 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $59 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $149 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $71 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $89 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $195 8d
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 14¢ $43 8d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $754.34 · official $751.14 (match) · 249 history records