Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3675…4e07 politics 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 666d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 82L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$24
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 83 -3.0% -12.2% 1% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage666d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 29 $110 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 06 $54 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $55 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 13 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $54 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cam Thomas lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the Serie A? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Durant lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trey McBride be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Sam LaPorta be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will TREMP reach $1b first? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Seahawks win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will another player be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Seahawks win the NFC Championship? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will RB Leipzig beat Bayern Munich? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Astaria airdrop in 2024? Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in Assists? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Zircuit airdrop in 2024? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden fined over 100k in gun case? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Louisville win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Maxey lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will Trump tweet 60 or more times Nov 15-22? Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential El Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electio Nov 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 15h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 10d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 11d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $54 20d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $54 21d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 27d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 28d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 35d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 36d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 97¢ $54 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $54 44d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 62d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 63d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 72d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 72d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 72d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 81d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 81d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 88d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 89d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 92d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 92d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 94d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 94d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? SELL No 98¢ $55 97d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? BUY No 100¢ $56 97d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $56 98d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $56 98d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records