Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x3678…b99e crypto 300 markets active 1h ago coverage 511d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,216 (-4%) realized −$2,216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate85%256W / 44L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days−$347
14 days−$892
30 days−$1,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,416
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$7
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -0.9% -10.4% 90% 25% -19.1%
≤30d 234 -2.9% -12.2% 87% 24% -12.8%
≤90d 281 -3.0% -12.2% 88% 21% -13.6%
all 300 -3.0% -12.3% 85% 20% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 20% -13.6%
10% -20.7% 9% -21.9%
15% -28.3% 5% -29.4%
20% -35.4% 4% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$126 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

511d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses256 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)300 / 300
History coverage511d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 300 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $208 +$40 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $251 −$251 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $228 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $234 +$274 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $225 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $255 −$255 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $229 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $227 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $250 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $251 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $281 −$281 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $276 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $275 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $274 +$28 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $271 +$12 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 603 history records