Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
36 0x367d…06c5 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+5%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%45W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$96
politics 19% +$115
other 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +59.5% +44.3% 67% 67% +26.6%
≤30d 5 +88.8% +70.8% 60% 60% +71.3%
≤90d 9 +90.8% +72.6% 67% 67% +45.1%
all 125 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 35% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 35% -8.3%
10% -23.5% 35% -17.1%
15% -30.9% 33% -25.1%
20% -37.7% 31% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses45 / 80
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage587d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 15 $3 +$6 +222%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 07 $5 +$20 +365%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $4 +$6 +178%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca May 10 $6 +$14 +226%
UFC Fight Night: Charrière vs. Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) May 10 $12 +$8 +70%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $14 −$14 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Ca Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Dec 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Chikadze vs. Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Buchecha (Heavyweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $3 −$1 -26%
UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Gibson Jr. (Catchweight, Prelims) Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Noche UFC: Garcia vs. Gordon Nov 21 $3 +$2 +55%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Nov 21 $2 +$3 +223%
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 21 $2 +$3 +138%
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 21 $3 +$2 +67%
Mix vs. Wiklacz Nov 21 $1 +$5 +567%
Will the fight be won by submission? Nov 21 $4 +$3 +75%
Noche UFC: Hernandez vs. Ferreira Nov 21 $5 +$5 +100%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Nov 21 $11 +$24 +223%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Nov 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Luque vs. Álvarez Oct 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Diniz vs. Pinto Oct 11 $3 −$1 -29%
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Oct 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. Oct 05 $10 −$6 -54%
Emmett vs. Zalal Oct 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Magomedov vs. Pyfer Oct 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Santos vs. Yoo Oct 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Muniz vs. Shahbazyan Oct 05 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 319: Elliott vs. Asakura Sep 14 $1 +$4 +733%
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico Sep 14 $2 +$3 +144%
Noche UFC: Luna vs. Le Sep 14 $6 +$4 +70%
UFC 319: Neal vs. Prates Sep 14 $6 +$4 +56%
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva Sep 14 $6 +$6 +89%
Noche UFC: Font vs. Martinez Sep 14 $16 −$6 -35%
Noche UFC: Gastelum vs. Stoltzfus Sep 13 $4 $0 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho Sep 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $4 1h
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 63¢ $5 8d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) SELL Tom Nolan 78¢ $4 8d
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Tom Nolan 27¢ $3 8d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 47¢ $5 8d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $5 36d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 49¢ $7 64d
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car BUY Jirí Procházka 49¢ $7 64d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Paulo Costa 30¢ $6 64d
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Ca BUY Vera 27¢ $5 106d
UFC Fight Night: King Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Zellhuber 58¢ $5 106d
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Lewis 27¢ $5 141d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 177d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 177d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 177d
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Royval 30¢ $2 182d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY No 62¢ $3 182d
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Royval 31¢ $3 182d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 182d
UFC Fight Night: Chikadze vs. Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Chikadze 23¢ $2 182d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 182d
UFC Fight Night: Charrière vs. Costa (Featherweight, Main Card) BUY Costa 59¢ $12 182d
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Buchecha (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Nzechukwu 41¢ $2 183d
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Buchecha (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Nzechukwu 55¢ $3 183d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 183d
UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Gibson Jr. (Catchweight, Prelims) BUY Gibson Jr. 29¢ $2 183d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 57¢ $4 210d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Della Maddalena 27¢ $3 210d
Will Jack Della Maddalena win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 210d
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Weili 10¢ $1 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 306 history records