Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3680…f087 weather 436 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,733 (+4%) realized +$4,713 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate78%331W / 93L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day57.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,484
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -2.0% -11.4% 85% 4% -8.3%
≤30d 189 -8.7% -17.4% 76% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 424 -4.4% -13.5% 78% 6% -8.3%
all 424 -4.4% -13.5% 78% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 6% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 5% -17.1%
15% -29.4% 4% -25.1%
20% -36.3% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1,147
Realized+$4,713
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses331 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)424 / 436
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$260
Trades / day57.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $466 $475 +$9 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $243 $248 +$5 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $217 $219 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Yes 12¢ 63¢ $8 $44 +$36 (+423%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 38¢ $11 $27 +$16 (+146%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $8 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $13 $1 −$13 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? Jun 17 $87 +$13 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? Jun 17 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $291 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $293 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $153 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $214 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $183 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $189 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $285 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $275 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $735 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $72 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $169 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $440 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $224 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $488 +$10 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $402 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $713 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $1,007 +$27 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 12 $224 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 12 $515 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $692 +$8 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 12 $936 +$11 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on June 11? Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $308 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 11? Jun 11 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $228 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 11? Jun 11 $290 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 11 $134 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $100 22m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $87 38m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 47m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $244 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $339 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 11h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $246 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $24 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,147.22 · official $1,147.22 (match) · 3500 history records