Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
36 0x3685…6d99 sports 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$752 (+9%) realized +$752 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%70W / 92L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$328
14 days−$257
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$712
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -64.1% -67.5% 17% 17% -54.4%
≤30d 55 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 36% -11.1%
≤90d 141 +15.6% +4.6% 45% 44% +0.9%
all 162 +11.4% +0.8% 43% 43% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 43% -1.6%
10% -8.9% 42% -11.1%
15% -17.7% 40% -19.6%
20% -25.7% 35% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$40 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$752
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses70 / 92
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage137d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $71 +$24 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $28 −$27 -98%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $119 −$117 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $80 +$158 +197%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $62 −$60 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $113 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $68 +$191 +280%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $65 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $94 +$143 +152%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $24 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 11 $80 +$45 +57%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $42 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $38 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $26 +$73 +276%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 10 $23 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $24 +$155 +642%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs eternal premium (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Jun 09 $40 +$73 +180%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $46 −$5 -10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $77 −$75 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $35 +$32 +91%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $64 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $18 +$43 +238%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 07 $32 −$31 -97%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $103 +$38 +37%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $147 +$53 +36%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $78 +$70 +90%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Jun 04 $21 +$49 +239%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $25 +$58 +237%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $42 +$56 +133%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $44 +$62 +139%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $46 +$29 +62%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 2 Winner May 31 $73 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner May 29 $77 −$75 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner May 25 $119 +$138 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $95 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 74¢ $71 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $2 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $31 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $43 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 36¢ $40 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $28 3d
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $119 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $55 3d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner SELL Rooster 100¢ $238 3d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 33¢ $42 3d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 33¢ $38 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $32 4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 47¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $33 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $5 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $3 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $7 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $5 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $16 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $3 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $5 6d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 34¢ $22 6d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 50¢ $54 6d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 50¢ $5 6d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids $1 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 34¢ $62 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 35¢ $113 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $43 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $25 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 337 history records