Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:48:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3689…09aa other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-30%) realized −$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -93% what you keep after slip
Net edge-93%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$10
sports 34% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-92.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -92.1% -92.8% 0% 0% -92.5%
≤30d 3 -92.1% -92.8% 0% 0% -92.5%
≤90d 3 -92.1% -92.8% 0% 0% -92.5%
all 3 -92.1% -92.8% 0% 0% -92.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -92.8% 0% -92.5%
10% -93.5% 0% -93.2%
15% -94.1% 0% -93.9%
20% -94.7% 0% -94.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -92% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$9 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.06 · official $29.06 (match) · 5 history records