Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x368a…3057 crypto 506 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,700 (-6%) realized −$10,700 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate71%372W / 151L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day69.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,421now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,436
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -41.9% -47.4% 45% 33% -17.8%
≤30d 42 -41.9% -47.4% 45% 33% -17.8%
≤90d 523 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 52% -10.8%
all 523 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 52% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 52% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 34% -19.4%
15% -28.5% 20% -27.2%
20% -35.5% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$245 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$2,421
Realized−$10,700
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses372 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)523 / 506
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$334
Trades / day69.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 523 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $256 −$256 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $466 −$466 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$45 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $2,195 +$241 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $1,455 +$741 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $939 +$515 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $769 +$54 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $444 −$224 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $758 −$717 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $599 +$159 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $501 +$99 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $444 +$59 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $1,136 −$378 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $658 +$126 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $644 +$51 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $589 +$55 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $486 +$106 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $424 +$61 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $297 −$290 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $214 +$85 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $771 −$597 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $616 +$193 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $459 +$160 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $370 +$86 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $366 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $350 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $313 +$47 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $255 −$255 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $169 +$85 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 27 $122 +$41 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 27 $212 −$210 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 26 $234 −$230 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 26 $882 −$872 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 26 $772 +$111 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 26 $2,358 −$1,207 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2,196 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,421.06 · official $2,421.06 (match) · 3500 history records