Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
36 0x368c…3e87 sports 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,361 (+9%) realized +$2,371 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate46%22W / 26L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$544per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days+$222
14 days+$283
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$1,255
other 34% +$272
world 3% −$154
crypto 1% +$400
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.5% +13.5% 80% 60% +1.1%
≤30d 7 +8.7% -1.7% 71% 57% +2.0%
≤90d 18 +9.6% -0.8% 72% 50% +3.9%
all 48 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 33% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -3.4%
10% -29.5% 27% -12.7%
15% -36.3% 19% -21.1%
20% -42.6% 12% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$664) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -36% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$70 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$2,371
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage118d
Avg bet$544
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-62%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $942 −$50 -5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $107 +$5 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $515 +$110 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $115 +$85 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $216 +$73 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $181 +$61 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 29 $2,122 +$223 +10%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 29 $4,445 +$657 +15%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 05 $638 +$46 +7%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $1,558 +$214 +14%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 05 $1,479 +$21 +1%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 05 $1,616 +$837 +52%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mar 29 $116 −$38 -32%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 29 $648 −$104 -16%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 29 $116 −$6 -6%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 29 $341 +$136 +40%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $48 +$22 +46%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $50 +$39 +78%
76ers vs. Kings Mar 22 $268 −$87 -33%
Heat vs. Rockets Mar 22 $664 +$15 +2%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $735 +$220 +30%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $200 −$50 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 19 $75 +$37 +49%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $726 +$44 +6%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $302 +$231 +76%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $1,485 −$21 -1%
Suns vs. Timberwolves Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? Mar 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 15 $1,543 −$20 -1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $971 −$32 -3%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Mar 12 $200 −$200 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Mar 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Hornets vs. Kings Mar 10 $125 −$125 -100%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 09 $3,700 −$52 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) Mar 04 $100 +$178 +178%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $120 +$280 +233%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 02 $292 −$292 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Mar 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 27 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 6m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 7m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 8m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 9m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 10m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 11m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 58m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 59m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 78¢ $39 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 78¢ $39 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 79¢ $39 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 77¢ $38 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 89¢ $45 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $47 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 34¢ $17 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 34¢ $17 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.21 · official $53.21 (match) · 691 history records