Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x368d…d853 sports 936 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,374 (+5%) realized +$7,374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%466W / 472L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$2,316est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days+$428
14 days+$2,261
30 days+$4,861
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6,446
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -5.7% -14.7% 41% 41% -2.5%
≤30d 159 +10.1% -0.3% 53% 51% +0.8%
≤90d 919 +3.3% -6.5% 49% 46% -7.1%
all 938 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 46% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 46% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 41% -15.1%
15% -22.4% 37% -23.3%
20% -30.0% 33% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$140 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses466 / 472
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$2,316
Open positions0
Markets (closed)938 / 936
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$175
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 938 Trades
no open positions (266 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $174 −$174 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $647 −$24 -4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $212 −$212 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $623 +$1,377 +221%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $601 −$601 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $506 +$164 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $70 −$68 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $355 −$352 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $655 +$250 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $519 −$512 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $167 −$164 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $223 +$444 +199%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $172 +$160 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $154 +$136 +89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $194 +$261 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $152 +$48 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $171 +$229 +134%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $312 +$88 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $421 +$379 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $147 +$123 +84%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $64 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $159 +$39 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $235 −$144 -61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $158 −$155 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $406 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $134 +$486 +362%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $338 −$335 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $150 +$185 +124%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $153 +$25 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $272 −$122 -45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $131 +$630 +480%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $149 +$338 +226%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $503 +$432 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $153 +$132 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $397 +$403 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $268 +$532 +198%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $478 −$472 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $337 −$330 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $376 −$376 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $376 −$376 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $237 +$563 +238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $623 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $647 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $194 18h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 18¢ $19 18h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $0 21h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $11 21h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $91 21h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $306 22h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $316 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $108 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $114 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $115 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $131 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $45 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $85 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $70 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $172 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $183 27h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $506 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 78¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $519 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 61¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $156 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $65 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 60¢ $202 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 60¢ $38 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 44¢ $62 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 44¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records