Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3690…e16f crypto 452 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (675 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$235,534 (+1893%) realized +$235,642 · open −$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%210W / 215L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day675.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$495
other 1% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (675 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 425 -0.9% -10.4% 49% 44% -5.8%
≤30d 425 -0.9% -10.4% 49% 44% -5.8%
≤90d 425 -0.9% -10.4% 49% 44% -5.8%
all 425 -0.9% -10.4% 49% 44% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover675.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 44% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 39% -14.8%
15% -26.8% 31% -23.0%
20% -33.9% 19% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$791
Realized+$235,642
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses210 / 215
Open positions28
Markets (closed)425 / 452
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day675.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? No 63¢ 100¢ $76 $120 +$44 (+58%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? No 71¢ 100¢ $77 $108 +$31 (+40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? No 84¢ 99¢ $67 $79 +$12 (+18%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 14? No 41¢ 99¢ $33 $79 +$46 (+139%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? No 73¢ 52¢ $59 $42 −$17 (-28%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $36 $39 +$3 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Yes 7¢ 35¢ $7 $34 +$27 (+380%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? No 73¢ 76¢ $28 $29 +$2 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+4%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? Yes 9¢ 31¢ $8 $28 +$20 (+250%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 15? No 17¢ 30¢ $14 $26 +$11 (+76%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? No 70¢ 56¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? Yes 8¢ 81¢ $2 $17 +$15 (+925%)
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $147 $15 −$132 (-90%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 68¢ 97¢ $10 $15 +$4 (+43%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+102%)
Will XRP reach $1.20 on June 14? No 85¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 14? No 85¢ 100¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Yes 62¢ 52¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-15%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? No 91¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? No 75¢ 97¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? No 75¢ 65¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? No 72¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$51 +215%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$34 -77%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$55 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$34 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$25 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$14 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$37 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $47 +$33 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$18 +159%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$31 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $41 +$59 +145%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $76 −$36 -47%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $151 −$71 -47%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$12 +55%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $54 −$12 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$11 +133%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $44 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$21 -68%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $37 −$17 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$16 +768%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$36 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$7 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$6 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$35 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$10 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$8 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 20m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $0 26m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 28m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 28m
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $7 30m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 31m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 34m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 36m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 40m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 41m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $8 42m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 43m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 44m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 50m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 50m
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 50m
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 15? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $7 58m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $791.17 · official $791.17 (match) · 3500 history records