Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x3691…8794 weather 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$18 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%72W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$10
world 7% −$9
other 7% −$10
tech 2% +$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 119 -39.4% -45.2% 60% 0% -11.1%
all 121 -39.5% -45.3% 60% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.3% 0% -11.9%
10% -50.5% 0% -20.3%
15% -55.3% 0% -28.0%
20% -59.7% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses72 / 49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage92d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 90¢ 60¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? Apr 28 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 20 Apr 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 20? Apr 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 20? Apr 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri Apr 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 19? Apr 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on April 19 Apr 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19? Apr 20 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on Apri Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 18? Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 19? Apr 19 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on April 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 17? Apr 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Apr 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 18? Apr 18 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on Apr Apr 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 16? Apr 17 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 17? Apr 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C or below on April 16? Apr 17 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 15 Apr 16 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 15? Apr 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 14 Apr 16 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 14? Apr 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 15? Apr 15 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 14? Apr 15 $11 $0 -2%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 13? Apr 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 13? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 13 Apr 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 14? Apr 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 13? Apr 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 13? Apr 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 12? Apr 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 12? Apr 13 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 12? Apr 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 12? Apr 13 $11 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $97 20d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri BUY No 99¢ $13 60d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 20 BUY No 99¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on April 19 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on April 19 BUY No 99¢ $11 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $14 61d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $11 61d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $15 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.59 · official $36.57 (match) · 310 history records