Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x3694…4fd6 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,478 (-9%) realized −$1,468 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%33W / 31L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$150
14 days−$151
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$2,889
crypto 38% +$1,764
sports 13% −$331
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -20.3% -27.9% 53% 40% -19.9%
≤30d 16 -25.1% -32.2% 50% 38% -20.0%
≤90d 27 -49.6% -54.4% 33% 26% -77.0%
all 64 +5.5% -4.5% 52% 44% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 44% -17.3%
10% -13.6% 39% -25.2%
15% -22.0% 33% -32.4%
20% -29.6% 27% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$213 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1,468
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses33 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage284d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $39 $29 −$10 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $129 +$99 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$75 +73%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $84 −$84 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 27 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $141 +$71 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Hellenic Championship: Stan Wawrinka vs Botic van de Zandschulp Apr 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Open de Moselle: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniel Altmaier Apr 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Over $80M committed to the Solomon public sale? Apr 29 $561 −$561 -100%
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula Apr 29 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Apr 29 $319 −$319 -100%
Hellenic Championship, Qualification: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Henry Bern Apr 29 $107 +$67 +62%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Apr 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Bulls vs. Knicks Apr 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Over $120M committed to the Solomon public sale? Apr 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Heat vs. Lakers Apr 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? Apr 29 $2,614 −$2,614 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $246 +$49 +20%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $815 +$1,503 +184%
Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $26 +$204 +788%
Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $556 +$234 +42%
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $1,158 +$207 +18%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $1,820 −$1,813 -100%
Heat vs. Clippers Nov 04 $64 −$64 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Nov 04 $98 −$98 -100%
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Nov 04 $14 +$50 +350%
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) Nov 04 $7 +$8 +111%
Hellenic Championship: Reilly Opelka vs Vit Kopriva Nov 04 $2 +$5 +223%
Open de Moselle: Arthur Cazaux vs Adrian Mannarino Nov 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Spurs vs. Suns Nov 03 $64 +$19 +29%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Nov 02 $9 +$1 +10%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $44 +$33 +74%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 01 $30 −$1 -3%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $198 −$20 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 29? Oct 31 $25 +$14 +54%
Heat vs. Spurs Oct 31 $59 −$59 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik Oct 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October Oct 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. Mavericks Oct 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets Oct 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.45 · official $29.45 (match) · 263 history records