Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
36 0x3696…69ce sports 912 markets active 0h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,023 (-2%) realized −$15,025 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%554W / 357L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$759per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$195est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,500
7 days−$9,798
14 days−$9,769
30 days−$9,292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$16,370
sports 8% −$626
politics 6% +$321
world 5% +$1,092
economics 1% −$56
crypto 1% +$225
culture 0% +$170
tech 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -7.1% -16.0% 50% 45% -46.8%
≤30d 65 -9.0% -17.7% 51% 45% -23.6%
≤90d 419 +0.1% -9.5% 54% 48% -15.0%
all 911 +0.2% -9.3% 61% 49% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 49% -11.5%
10% -18.0% 41% -20.0%
15% -25.9% 33% -27.7%
20% -33.2% 24% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$192 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$15,025
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses554 / 357
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions1
Markets (closed)911 / 912
History coverage427d
Avg bet$759
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 911 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $210 $212 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 +$78 +69%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$44 -86%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $135 +$165 +122%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,295 −$2,290 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $340 +$160 +47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $810 +$190 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $650 +$349 +54%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $67 +$132 +197%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8,800 −$8,800 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $59 +$50 +85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,402 +$598 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$23 -89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $138 +$162 +117%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $194 +$106 +55%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$11 -81%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $132 −$83 -63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $247 −$246 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $162 +$38 +24%
Will France vs. Ireland end in a draw? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ireland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $17,352 +$77 +0%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $22 −$22 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $114 +$86 +75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Torino FC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $130 +$59 +46%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $178 +$121 +68%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $118 +$51 +43%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $292 +$84 +29%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $49 +$25 +52%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 May 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $219 −$219 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $64 +$36 +56%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $118 +$82 +69%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10,163 +$237 +2%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $86 +$114 +133%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to S May 23 $70 +$50 +72%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5,057 +$343 +7%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 23 $37 −$37 -100%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 23 $51 +$48 +94%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $116 +$45 +39%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $210 19m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $190 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $135 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $888 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $130 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $456 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $775 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $162 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $58 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $340 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $67 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $123 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $483 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.50 · official $211.50 (match) · 2910 history records