Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
36 0x3696…5ce1 other 13 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$144 (+3%) realized +$160 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$2,533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$32
crypto 0% +$14
sports 0% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +87.2% +69.3% 67% 67% -0.0%
≤30d 10 +68.5% +52.4% 60% 60% -4.0%
≤90d 10 +68.5% +52.4% 60% 60% -4.0%
all 10 +68.5% +52.4% 60% 60% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.4% 60% -4.0%
10% +37.8% 40% -13.2%
15% +24.5% 40% -21.6%
20% +12.3% 30% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$57 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,533
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage7d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $2,000 $1,989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $350 $346 −$4 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$90 +873%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,207 +$262 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $17 +$2 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $356 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,005 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 15h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,469 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,207 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $17 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,533.44 · official $2,533.44 (match) · 19 history records