Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x369c…eab1
other · 85 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,981 -53%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open −$33
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,040
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions274
Markets (closed)6 / 85
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3495.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 274 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 71¢ 74¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 71¢ 71¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 66¢ 67¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? No 56¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 57¢ 58¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 51¢ 72¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+42%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? No 77¢ 99¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+28%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 98¢ $7 $10 +$2 (+33%)
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election? No 82¢ 98¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? No 76¢ 98¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+29%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 64¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 75¢ 95¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+26%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NBA: SGA Award Parlay Jun 12 $0 +$2 +469%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +852%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $56 +$10 +18%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $85 +$1 +1%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $120 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 70% $0
other 17% −$31
finance 6% $0
crypto 4% −$1
politics 2% +$20
sports 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $3 0m
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 0m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 0m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 0m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 0m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 62¢ $3 0m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $3 1m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 58¢ $3 1m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $0 1m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 47¢ $2 1m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 2m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 2m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $2 2m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 47¢ $2 2m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $2 2m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 34¢ $2 2m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 2m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $2 2m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 47¢ $2 2m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 47¢ $2 2m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $1 2m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $0 2m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $3 2m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+199.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +231.0% +199.4% 83% 67% -2.4%
≤30d 6 +231.0% +199.4% 83% 67% -2.4%
≤90d 6 +231.0% +199.4% 83% 67% -2.4%
all 6 +231.0% +199.4% 83% 67% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3495.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +199.4% 67% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here +170.8% 50% -11.7%
15% +144.6% 50% -20.2%
20% +120.6% 33% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,039.82 · official $2,040.64 (match) · 3500 history records