Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36a3…11a7 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$944 (-15%) realized −$941 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$472
7 days−$965
14 days−$965
30 days−$965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$832
sports 25% −$32
world 2% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -34.9% -41.1% 12% 8% -26.2%
≤30d 24 -34.9% -41.1% 12% 8% -26.2%
≤90d 26 -39.9% -45.6% 12% 8% -26.3%
all 26 -39.9% -45.6% 12% 8% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 8% -26.3%
10% -50.8% 8% -33.4%
15% -55.6% 4% -39.8%
20% -59.9% 4% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$48 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$941
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 23
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage46d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $211 $209 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $109 $108 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $113 −$112 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $138 −$137 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $118 −$117 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $230 +$126 +55%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $163 −$4 -2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $169 −$4 -2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $510 −$11 -2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $153 −$4 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $376 −$2 -0%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $384 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $473 −$239 -51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $466 −$116 -25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $115 −$114 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $334 −$7 -2%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $353 −$7 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $377 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $306 −$8 -3%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $188 +$1 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $201 −$91 -45%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $163 −$4 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $49 +$14 +28%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $89 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $97 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $13 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.98 · official $316.98 (match) · 146 history records