Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x36a7…1aea
politics · 79 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$4,930 +62%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$779 · open −$270
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,442
Realized+$779
Unrealized−$270
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions72
Markets (closed)46 / 79
History coverage20d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day170.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 72 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$205
14 days+$749
30 days+$779
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $325 $292 −$32 (-10%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $266 $289 +$22 (+8%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $445 $284 −$162 (-36%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $264 $260 −$4 (-2%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $231 $235 +$4 (+2%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $230 $225 −$5 (-2%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $163 $194 +$31 (+19%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $215 $188 −$28 (-13%)
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $170 $184 +$14 (+8%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $163 $161 −$2 (-1%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $169 $156 −$13 (-7%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $145 $142 −$2 (-1%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $115 $130 +$15 (+13%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $130 +$20 (+18%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $117 $130 +$13 (+11%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $120 $130 +$10 (+9%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $118 $130 +$12 (+10%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $155 $127 −$27 (-18%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $102 $124 +$22 (+22%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $105 $112 +$7 (+7%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $105 $97 −$7 (-7%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 75¢ 62¢ $112 $94 −$19 (-17%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $88 $92 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $14 +$27 +196%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Traian Basescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $0 $0 -4%
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $4 $0 -5%
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $0 $0 -4%
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Alexandru Rogobete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $0 $0 +44%
Will Șerban Matei be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $105 +$10 +10%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $29 +$3 +12%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $105 +$55 +52%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +114%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $55 +$40 +74%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $40 +$80 +201%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $70 −$3 -4%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $35 −$1 -4%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $50 −$5 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $191 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $810 +$740 +91%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $114 +$30 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $482 +$21 +4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $53 +$21 +39%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,155 −$321 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $192 +$58 +30%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $69 +$3 +4%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 29 $80 +$21 +27%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $25 +$5 +20%
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? May 26 $1 +$4 +300%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 30% +$112
other 26% −$167
crypto 21% −$321
world 17% +$802
sports 6% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 42¢ $44 6m
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14m
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14m
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15m
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18m
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23m
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 42¢ $48 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 31¢ $19 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $112 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $50 2h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Traian Basescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 2h
Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -7.2% -16.0% 45% 32% +24.7%
≤30d 46 +6.2% -3.9% 52% 37% +4.9%
≤90d 46 +6.2% -3.9% 52% 37% +4.9%
all 46 +6.2% -3.9% 52% 37% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover170.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 37% +4.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 28% -5.1%
15% -21.5% 22% -14.3%
20% -29.2% 17% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,441.51 · official $5,443.09 (match) · 3500 history records