Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
36 0x36b0…1a94 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$550 (+4%) realized +$606 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 53L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$822
7 days+$65
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$901
sports 44% −$630
crypto 6% −$110
world 2% −$333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -1.7% -11.0% 33% 32% -7.4%
≤30d 68 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 32% -7.6%
≤90d 68 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 32% -7.6%
all 81 -6.7% -15.5% 35% 33% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 33% -8.8%
10% -23.6% 27% -17.5%
15% -31.0% 23% -25.5%
20% -37.8% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$89 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$606
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions6
Markets (closed)81 / 88
History coverage177d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $300 $250 −$50 (-17%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+29%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $301 +$35 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$341 -67%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$12 -75%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $382 −$375 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $920 −$130 -14%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$37 +37%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,007 −$760 -76%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 +$17 +17%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $36 +$5 +15%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,505 +$20 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$60 -30%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 −$15 -29%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$23 -46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 +$57 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 +$224 +874%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -91%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $2,020 +$297 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $441 +$252 +57%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $71 +$108 +152%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $731 −$343 -47%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $67 −$65 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $337 −$333 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$30 -59%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $152 +$83 +54%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$42 -83%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $705 −$189 -27%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$6 -3%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $38 −$37 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $308 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $166 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $382 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 47¢ $199 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 28¢ $409 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 25¢ $555 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $138 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $512 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 19¢ $247 22h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 16¢ $120 22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 4¢ $41 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1,007 23h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 23h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $36 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $1,524 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 64¢ $141 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $36 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.02 · official $290.02 (match) · 162 history records