Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
36 0x36b2…5047 sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,947 (+14%) realized +$3,022 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%45W / 53L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$390est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 123d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,262
crypto 3% −$556
politics 1% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 40% -1.3%
≤30d 15 +12.6% +1.9% 47% 47% -13.2%
≤90d 93 +5.9% -4.2% 46% 46% -5.4%
all 98 +8.2% -2.1% 46% 46% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 46% -5.3%
10% -11.5% 46% -14.3%
15% -20.0% 46% -22.6%
20% -27.9% 45% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$199 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$3,022
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses45 / 53
Est. fees paid−$390
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage123d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Brazil 41¢ 22¢ $160 $85 −$75 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $182 −$28 -15%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $153 +$228 +150%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $229 +$305 +133%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $284 −$279 -98%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Mali vs Sierra Leone May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $483 +$593 +123%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1,017 −$998 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $510 −$500 -98%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex May 25 $307 +$532 +173%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $474 +$781 +165%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $819 −$805 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 24 $405 +$309 +76%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $460 −$450 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $255 +$433 +170%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Sweden vs Slovenia May 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $408 −$400 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $357 +$631 +177%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Sweden May 17 $254 −$254 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 15 $367 −$367 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $438 −$127 -29%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $353 +$171 +48%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 11 $279 +$247 +89%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $229 +$304 +133%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $367 −$360 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $36 +$33 +92%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 05 $255 +$459 +180%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $254 +$160 +63%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $357 −$350 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $153 +$179 +118%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 02 $331 −$325 -98%
Pakistan Super League: Islamabad United vs Hyderabad Kingsmen May 02 $153 +$189 +124%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 02 $356 +$440 +124%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $254 −$250 -98%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 27 $250 −$245 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $260 −$10 -4%
Pakistan Super League: Islamabad United vs Multan Sultans Apr 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $250 −$245 -98%
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Apr 26 $100 −$98 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $250 −$246 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 25 $250 +$285 +114%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $50 −$49 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand Apr 23 $150 −$148 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $226 +$275 +122%
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Islamabad United Apr 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Multan Sultans vs Rawalpindi Pindiz Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Ki Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Multan Sultans vs Karachi Kings Apr 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 20¢ $10 11m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 29¢ $10 23m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 31¢ $5 26m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 30¢ $10 27m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 45¢ $51 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 51¢ $76 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 5¢ $29 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 92¢ $602 40h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 23¢ $153 43h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 95¢ $381 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 49¢ $102 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 25¢ $51 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 96¢ $264 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 90¢ $270 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 31¢ $77 4d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 45¢ $152 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 33¢ $153 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 14¢ $30 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 24¢ $77 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 43¢ $76 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 48¢ $102 4d
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Mali vs Sierra Leone BUY Mali 17¢ $51 19d
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Mali vs Sierra Leone BUY Mali 32¢ $51 19d
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Mali vs Sierra Leone BUY Mali 34¢ $102 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 95¢ $548 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 90¢ $523 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 37¢ $76 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 39¢ $255 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $152 19d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 16¢ $72 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.61 · official $76.74 · 252 history records