Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36b4…d723 crypto 663 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,882 (-21%) realized −$15,882 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%290W / 373L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day140.0pace
Fees−$585est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,908
crypto 40% −$2,027
other 7% −$614
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 -26.5% -33.5% 34% 33% -48.1%
≤30d 663 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 43% -15.0%
≤90d 663 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 43% -15.0%
all 663 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 43% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 43% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 43% -23.2%
15% -32.6% 42% -30.6%
20% -39.2% 41% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$96 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15,882
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses290 / 373
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$585
Open positions0
Markets (closed)663 / 663
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$113
Trades / day140.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 663 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$31 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $38 −$24 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$39 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$41 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $61 −$40 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$21 -64%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $113 −$38 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$12 +83%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $46 −$40 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$20 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$23 -94%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $75 +$43 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $65 +$80 +123%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $43 −$42 -99%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $49 +$51 +105%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$24 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$10 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$8 -42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$42 +519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$42 -84%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$39 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$17 -82%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $54 +$45 +83%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $153 −$89 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $13 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $44 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records