Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36b9…1de0 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$13
world 29% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 13% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.8% -6.1% 67% 0% -6.2%
≤30d 10 +0.6% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 47 -0.7% -10.2% 40% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage279d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $64 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $68 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $35 −$3 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $45 −$14 -32%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Nov 04 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 25 $2 $0 -20%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $7 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $55 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 05 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on September 19? Sep 22 $22 $0 +1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $7 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $27 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $0 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $7 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $17 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $2 30h
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $29 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $29 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $10 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $32 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $32 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $24 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $35 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $31 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $19 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.26 · official $35.26 (match) · 168 history records