Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36c7…ac02 other 38 markets active 1d ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-12%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$3
politics 31% −$6
crypto 7% −$4
sports 6% +$3
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -29.3% -36.1% 31% 31% -22.1%
≤30d 13 -29.3% -36.1% 31% 31% -22.1%
≤90d 16 -4.1% -13.3% 38% 38% -10.0%
all 34 -25.9% -33.0% 38% 35% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 35% -25.7%
10% -39.4% 26% -32.8%
15% -45.2% 21% -39.3%
20% -50.6% 15% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage168d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 +$2 +153%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 13 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win between 70 and 99 seats Feb 13 $5 −$4 -69%
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 150 and 199 se Feb 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Shafiqur Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after th Feb 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 100 and 149 se Feb 12 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $2 −$1 -50%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 $0 +11%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 $0 +23%
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 $0 +26%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 +$1 +48%
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 $0 +10%
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $1 $0 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 6d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 63d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 63d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 63d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.90 · official $10.90 (match) · 74 history records