Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
36 0x36c7…1be8 sports 14 markets active 5h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$342 (+13%) realized +$635 · open −$293
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$25
sports 47% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +21.1% +9.6% 92% 69% +4.0%
≤30d 13 +21.1% +9.6% 92% 69% +4.0%
≤90d 13 +21.1% +9.6% 92% 69% +4.0%
all 13 +21.1% +9.6% 92% 69% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 69% +4.0%
10% -0.9% 46% -6.0%
15% -10.5% 23% -15.1%
20% -19.3% 15% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$191 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$635
Unrealized−$293
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage7d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 0¢ $293 $0 −$293 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $272 +$23 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $248 +$24 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $217 +$31 +14%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $187 +$40 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $121 +$66 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $116 +$125 +107%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $301 −$191 -63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $189 +$14 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $142 +$47 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $108 +$35 +32%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $173 +$46 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $146 +$27 +18%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $103 +$43 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $294 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $272 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $272 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $248 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $217 18h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 23h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $187 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $121 41h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $241 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $116 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $190 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $189 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $189 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $142 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $142 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $108 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $108 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $110 4d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 79¢ $173 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $173 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 84¢ $146 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $146 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 70¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.17 (match) · 28 history records