Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36d0…ba51 world 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%33W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$12
other 18% −$8
politics 17% −$2
sports 9% +$4
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.1% -8.5% 56% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 33 +5.5% -4.5% 33% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 82 +19.0% +7.7% 33% 4% -9.7%
all 93 +15.5% +4.5% 35% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 4% -9.9%
10% -5.5% 3% -18.5%
15% -14.6% 3% -26.4%
20% -23.0% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses33 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage525d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $43 $38 −$4 (-10%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $24 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $41 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $22 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $82 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $115 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $115 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $42 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 −$1 -20%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $74 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $21 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $52 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $14 −$3 -20%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $88 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $82 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $79 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $36 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $44 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $12 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $118 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $63 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $39 8h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $39 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $15 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $38 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $38 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 21¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 21¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.88 · official $38.48 (match) · 410 history records