Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
36 0x36d2…78dd other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 482d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,740 (+107%) realized +$1,741 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days−$253
14 days−$253
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$1,988
other 34% −$252
crypto 0% −$3
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -50.4% -55.1% 0% 0% -55.1%
≤30d 1 -50.4% -55.1% 0% 0% -55.1%
≤90d 1 -50.4% -55.1% 0% 0% -55.1%
all 9 +1.5% -8.1% 44% 33% +90.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 33% +90.3%
10% -16.9% 33% +72.1%
15% -25.0% 33% +55.5%
20% -32.3% 33% +40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +110% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$499 vs −$52 · ×9.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.67 per $1 lost it wins $7.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$1,741
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage482d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $502 −$253 -50%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $1,055 +$1,993 +189%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? May 06 $7 −$4 -62%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Mar 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files? Mar 07 $2 +$2 +88%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Mar 04 $2 +$2 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $141 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $47 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $157 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $113 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $43 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $139 16d
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,055 394d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? BUY Yes $2 401d
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? SELL Yes $3 417d
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 471d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 472d
Ethereum above $2,300 on March 7? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 477d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 477d
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 477d
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files? SELL No 61¢ $4 478d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.96 · official $47.96 (match) · 57 history records