Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
36 0x36d7…dacf sports 618 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,953 (-2%) realized −$1,952 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate72%446W / 170L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$725est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$609now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,218
7 days+$1,218
14 days+$1,218
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,453
crypto 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +22.8% +11.1% 86% 71% +13.3%
≤30d 58 +1.9% -7.8% 74% 57% -10.5%
≤90d 616 +2.5% -7.2% 72% 56% -11.4%
all 616 +2.5% -7.2% 72% 56% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 56% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 37% -19.8%
15% -24.2% 23% -27.6%
20% -31.6% 13% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$127 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$609
Realized−$1,952
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses446 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$725
Open positions2
Markets (closed)616 / 618
History coverage74d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 616 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 77¢ 76¢ $410 $409 −$1 (-0%)
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Karmine Corp 60¢ 60¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $612 +$63 +10%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $748 +$190 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $658 +$89 +14%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $73 +$77 +105%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) Jun 29 $148 +$225 +152%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 29 $151 +$63 +41%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $545 +$113 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $496 +$49 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $82 +$14 +17%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $141 +$41 +29%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $225 −$50 -22%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $690 +$82 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $377 +$314 +83%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $179 −$176 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $447 −$445 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$27 +13%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $81 +$79 +98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $196 −$192 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $151 +$44 +29%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $505 −$445 -88%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$180 +89%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $420 +$31 +7%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$12 +12%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $295 +$11 +4%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$5 +26%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $113 +$79 +69%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $300 +$9 +3%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$24 +69%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $65 +$11 +17%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $160 +$7 +4%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $3 −$2 -54%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $167 +$42 +25%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $263 −$260 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $301 −$300 -100%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $176 +$80 +45%
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs Jun 02 $475 +$9 +2%
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $101 +$38 +38%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $395 +$42 +11%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $324 +$71 +22%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $565 −$242 -43%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 01 $511 +$54 +11%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $403 +$105 +26%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $382 −$380 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $281 +$46 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $638 +$16 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $343 +$151 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 60¢ $202 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $302 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play- BUY Karmine Corp 76¢ $111 12h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 92¢ $187 16h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $111 16h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 78¢ $301 16h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $149 16h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $747 16h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 99¢ $248 16h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 17¢ $51 16h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 93¢ $149 17h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $150 17h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $73 17h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $373 17h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $214 18h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 100¢ $214 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 69¢ $50 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 89¢ $149 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 90¢ $200 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 90¢ $259 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $658 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $33 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 72¢ $20 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 72¢ $91 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $402 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 95¢ $545 19h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) BUY T1 39¢ $148 21h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 70¢ $151 21h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $99 37h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $397 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $608.78 · official $610.44 (match) · 2010 history records