Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
36 0x36d7…e9ec sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$94 (+8%) realized +$121 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$58
14 days+$116
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$20
sports 41% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +23.3% +11.6% 83% 83% +2.2%
≤30d 22 +59.8% +44.6% 77% 68% +1.4%
≤90d 22 +59.8% +44.6% 77% 68% +1.4%
all 26 +39.7% +26.4% 69% 62% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.4% 62% -1.5%
10% +14.3% 42% -10.9%
15% +3.2% 31% -19.5%
20% -6.9% 15% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +77% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 31
History coverage121d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 3+ shots Yes 81¢ 56¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-31%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 72¢ 40¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $154 −$21 -13%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 +$33 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $128 +$24 +19%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 +$9 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$7 +22%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$11 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 −$14 -56%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 +$20 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$7 +33%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 +$4 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $40 +$15 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 -1%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 11 $1 +$11 +1067%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $51 +$5 +9%
Will CA Aldosivi win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Will CA Unión vs. CA Aldosivi end in a draw? Feb 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CA River Plate end in a draw? Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 93¢ $28 3m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $67 24m
Harry Kane: 3+ shots BUY Yes 81¢ $50 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $25 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $133 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 81¢ $26 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $61 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $153 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $30 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 89¢ $18 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $30 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $24 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $20 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $30 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 26¢ $11 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $25 9d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $25 9d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL 90¢ $27 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 55¢ $10 9d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY 67¢ $20 9d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $60 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $87 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $56 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.80 · official $92.80 (match) · 71 history records