Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36d8…c7c7 sports 687 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (226 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,860 (+6%) realized +$12,080 · open −$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%282W / 393L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day226.3pace
Fees−$2,818est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$638
other 2% +$2,037
crypto 0% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (226 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 487 -25.7% -32.8% 30% 29% -26.2%
≤30d 675 -0.8% -10.3% 42% 40% -8.8%
≤90d 675 -0.8% -10.3% 42% 40% -8.8%
all 675 -0.8% -10.3% 42% 40% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover226.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 40% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 37% -17.5%
15% -26.7% 34% -25.5%
20% -33.9% 32% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$188 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$2,491
Realized+$12,080
Unrealized−$220
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses282 / 393
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,818
Open positions9
Markets (closed)675 / 687
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$283
Trades / day226.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 675 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 53¢ 54¢ $652 $664 +$12 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 59¢ 56¢ $655 $617 −$39 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 50¢ 50¢ $599 $606 +$7 (+1%)
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Hive 50¢ 53¢ $240 $255 +$14 (+6%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 44¢ 16¢ $352 $132 −$220 (-62%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 61¢ 60¢ $121 $119 −$2 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs HOTU 37¢ 38¢ $71 $73 +$2 (+3%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 21¢ 28¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+31%)
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 77¢ 100¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $82 +$109 +133%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $42 −$4 -10%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $733 +$378 +52%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $463 +$337 +73%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $969 +$142 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $258 +$139 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $661 −$661 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $1,053 +$58 +6%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $19 +$5 +27%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $236 −$232 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Man eSports LFO vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Pacific Jun 15 $80 +$104 +131%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $982 −$976 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $1,278 +$323 +25%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $145 +$170 +117%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $404 +$1,015 +251%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $31 +$18 +56%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $59 −$13 -22%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $6 +$4 +54%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 14 $65 −$64 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $194 +$336 +173%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $446 −$437 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $363 +$748 +206%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $131 −$130 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $82 −$80 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $598 −$590 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $385 −$378 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $649 −$615 -95%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$9 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $56 +$222 +396%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1,032 +$568 +55%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $272 −$272 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,630 −$519 -32%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $282 +$250 +89%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $381 +$396 +104%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $32 +$46 +144%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $159 +$215 +135%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 19¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 37¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 49¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $337 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $242 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $556 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $596 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $59 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Hive 50¢ $17 5h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY Hive 50¢ $224 5h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 61¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 61¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 61¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,490.56 · official $2,493.51 (match) · 3500 history records