Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36e1…26f5 crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%29W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$64
politics 4% −$30
other 2% −$4
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +7.6% -2.7% 53% 45% -5.5%
≤30d 55 +7.6% -2.7% 53% 45% -5.5%
≤90d 55 +7.6% -2.7% 53% 45% -5.5%
all 55 +7.6% -2.7% 53% 45% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 45% -5.5%
10% -12.0% 38% -14.5%
15% -20.5% 29% -22.8%
20% -28.3% 18% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $88 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $73 +$39 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$3 +9%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$31 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +54%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $1 +$6 +612%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +355%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $21 −$10 -51%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $26 −$20 -77%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +478%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $98 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $88 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $97 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $79 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $62 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $13 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $11 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 149 history records