Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36e4…8f38 politics 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,060 (+1%) realized +$2,061 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%30W / 126L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1,421per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,062now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$7
14 days+$40
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$140
other 27% +$102
sports 12% +$2,086
world 3% −$23
economics 2% +$2
culture 2% −$5
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 -5.3% -14.4% 10% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 98 -7.7% -16.5% 7% 3% -8.9%
all 156 +6.6% -3.5% 19% 12% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 12% -8.7%
10% -12.8% 12% -17.4%
15% -21.2% 10% -25.4%
20% -28.9% 8% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,877) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$6 · ×14.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$1,062
Realized+$2,061
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses30 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,421
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,062 $1,062 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,251 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1,007 +$2 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,543 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,877 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $152 $0 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 07 $60 +$56 +93%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $86 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $47 −$47 -99%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $117 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $131 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $52 −$52 -99%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,268 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,441 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,466 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,266 −$4 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $3,962 −$5 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $2,127 −$3 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 24 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $2,235 −$3 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $51 +$49 +97%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? May 19 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,209 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2,424 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2,692 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $3,503 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $2,454 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $7,206 −$11 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $5,686 −$6 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $3,262 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 56m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,062 57m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,063 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $115 26h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 42h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $119 42h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $119 45h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $153 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $153 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $159 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $159 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $153 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $153 3d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $159 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $159 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $149 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $149 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $152 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $153 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $161 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $161 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $156 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $156 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $152 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $152 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $151 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $151 10d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $60 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,061.64 · official $1,061.64 (match) · 556 history records