Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
36 0x36e5…a31e crypto 156 markets active 2d ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$159 (-4%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%96W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$124
14 days−$124
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$250
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 50% -16.8%
≤30d 76 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 50% -16.8%
≤90d 156 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 52% -14.9%
all 156 -8.7% -17.4% 62% 52% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 52% -14.9%
10% -25.3% 35% -23.0%
15% -32.5% 24% -30.4%
20% -39.1% 17% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses96 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage57d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$8 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $35 −$8 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $62 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$26 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$15 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 542 history records