Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:05:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
36 0x36e7…ec54 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+3%) realized +$131 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$82
tech 24% +$21
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.4% -24.3% 75% 50% +0.1%
≤30d 4 -16.4% -24.3% 75% 50% +0.1%
≤90d 4 -16.4% -24.3% 75% 50% +0.1%
all 6 -24.3% -31.6% 67% 50% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 50% -1.3%
10% -38.1% 0% -10.8%
15% -44.1% 0% -19.4%
20% -49.6% 0% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.42 per $1 lost it wins $4.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage524d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 70¢ 2¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 13 $96 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $144 +$20 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration? Jan 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US gov sell Bitcoin before Trump inauguration? Jan 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $92 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $193 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $199 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 57¢ $236 11h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $27 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 87¢ $0 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL No 87¢ $45 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 91¢ $46 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 92¢ $50 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $49 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 6d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration? BUY No 50¢ $5 519d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration? BUY No 50¢ $0 520d
Will US gov sell Bitcoin before Trump inauguration? SELL No 92¢ $4 520d
Will US gov sell Bitcoin before Trump inauguration? SELL No 92¢ $1 520d
Will US gov sell Bitcoin before Trump inauguration? BUY No 77¢ $5 524d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.05 · official $91.90 · 27 history records