Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x36e7…9f90
sports · 23 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$3,611 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,016 · open −$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2,056
Realized+$5,016
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage117d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,437
7 days+$1,422
14 days+$2,341
30 days+$2,803
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 67¢ 66¢ $2,093 $2,056 −$37 (-2%)
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Antonia Ruzic vs Anastasia Zakharova Zakharova 49¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2 FURIA Esports 42¢ $201 $0 −$201 (-100%)
Women's Knockout - Switzerland vs. Sweden Sweden 70¢ $571 $0 −$571 (-100%)
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Iva Jovic vs Jessica Pegula Jovic 31¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 48¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Astralis 43¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jannik Sinner Sinner 92¢ $1,001 $0 −$1,001 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,498 +$1,437 +96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $1,481 +$919 +62%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qual May 30 $143 +$57 +40%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Amer May 28 $1,458 +$606 +42%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ameri May 27 $202 −$201 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 1 Winner Apr 09 $906 +$255 +28%
Red Wings vs. Devils Apr 08 $8 +$7 +92%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Amanda Anisimo Feb 21 $7 +$4 +67%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 21 $514 +$137 +27%
Celtics vs. Warriors Feb 20 $17 +$8 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Pla Feb 20 $339 +$835 +246%
Metepec: Alexis Galarneau vs Cannon Kingsley Feb 20 $100 +$52 +52%
Qatar Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Feb 19 $171 +$129 +75%
Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jannik Sinner Feb 19 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Women's Knockout - Switzerland vs. Sweden Feb 19 $571 −$571 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Marcos Giron vs Casper Ruud Feb 19 $147 +$87 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 18 $2,569 +$2,637 +103%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 18 $174 +$131 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 18 $490 −$490 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Iva Jovic vs Jessica Pegula Feb 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Antonia Ruzic vs Anastasia Zakha Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$4,980
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $667 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $2 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $2 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $3 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $32 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $37 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $10 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $2 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $194 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $7 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $11 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $10 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $24 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $4 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $2 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $7 10m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $1,097 11m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2,935 15m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $1,198 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $155 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $15 2d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $1,481 13d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qual BUY NRG 71¢ $32 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 50% +75.5%
≤30d 6 +6.5% -3.6% 67% 67% +43.4%
≤90d 8 +20.0% +8.5% 75% 75% +39.1%
all 22 +18.7% +7.4% 68% 68% +28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 68% +28.9%
10% -2.8% 68% +16.5%
15% -12.2% 59% +5.3%
20% -20.8% 45% -5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,056.45 · official $2,056.45 (match) · 146 history records