Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

36
0x36e8…c7b1
other · 56 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage265d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 16¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $130 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 14 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Oct 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $2 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 07 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Oct 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $3 $0 -13%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$3
other 30% −$1
politics 15% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 4% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $13 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $14 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $27 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $19 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 13h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $5 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $4 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $34 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $42 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $15 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $5 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $20 35h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 39h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $45 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $44 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $41 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $41 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 56% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 36% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 36% 0% -9.0%
all 55 +0.2% -9.3% 31% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.89 · official $10.89 (match) · 209 history records