Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
36 0x36ea…18c9 crypto 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$78 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate91%222W / 21L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$9
sports 7% −$38
world 2% $0
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 243 +1.4% -8.2% 91% 23% -7.6%
all 243 +1.4% -8.2% 91% 23% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 23% -7.6%
10% -17.0% 8% -16.4%
15% -25.0% 2% -24.5%
20% -32.4% 1% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses222 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)243 / 245
History coverage52d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 08 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 08 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 08 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 07 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $52 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.01 · official $9.01 (match) · 656 history records